Vault

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$245.10

490 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $220.59 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.71%

20 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

56.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

20 openings · below min

30 days

20 openings · below min

since tracking started

20 openings · below min

36.5%90.8%145.0%

Small sample. 20 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	20	90.71%±53.6	—	odds
30d	20	90.71%±53.6	—	odds
All	20	90.71%±53.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 10,000	$9,909 19,817 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$8,979 17,957 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 1,000	$3,097 6,194 coins	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Emerald	1 in 500	$2,338 4,676 coins	2.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$2,012 4,025 coins	1.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$885 1,770 coins	4.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$741 1,483 coins	3.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$639 1,278 coins	2.9%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$478 956 coins	43.4%	7	4.0	1.75×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	20.0%	$372 745 coins	33.8%	2	4.0	0.50×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.0%	$70.92 142 coins	3.2%	4	2.0	2.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	10.0%	$68.47 137 coins	3.1%	1	2.0	0.50×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	10.0%	$0.97 1.94 coins	0.0%	0	2.0	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$0.48 0.96 coins	0.0%	3	2.0	1.50×
G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.17 0.34 coins	0.0%	1	2.0	0.50×
Dual Berettas \| Stained (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 15	$0.17 0.33 coins	0.0%	2	1.3	1.54×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$245490 coins$0.480.96 coins0.00x3d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$245490 coins$372745 coins1.52x3d

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified$245490 coins$70.92142 coins0.29x3d

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classifiedfordtransit$245490 coins$70.92142 coins0.29x3d

MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted$245490 coins$478956 coins1.95x4d

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified$245490 coins$70.92142 coins0.29x4d

MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted$245490 coins$478956 coins1.95x4d

Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New)weapon · industrial$245490 coins$0.170.33 coins0.00x4d

★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal$245490 coins$68.47137 coins0.28x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$245	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.0%legendary 0.0%high 0.1%Covert 20.2%covert 2.2%covert knife 1.0%restricted 30.0%classified 10.0%Immortal 10.0%#8847ff 10.0%mil spec 10.0%industrial 6.5%best hit —