Vault Heist

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.19

10.38 coins

Advertised RTP

89.95%

EV $4.67 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

102.98%

1,865 openings, odds method

Variance

9.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

70.36%±56.26116 openings

7 days

107.68%±15.621,504 openings

30 days

102.98%±14.031,865 openings

since tracking started

102.98%±14.031,865 openings

13.5%70.5%127.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	116	70.36%±56.3	−0.7σ	odds
7d	1,504	107.68%±15.6	+2.2σ	odds
30d	1,865	102.98%±14.0	+1.8σ	odds
All	1,865	102.98%±14.0	+1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,865 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 20,000	$1,383 2,766 coins	1.5%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$818 1,635 coins	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$514 1,027 coins	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 5,000	$259 519 coins	1.1%	1	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$183 365 coins	1.6%	1	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$34.17 68.34 coins	29.3%	70	74.6	0.94×
P250 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$19.17 38.33 coins	16.4%	82	74.6	1.10×
Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$14.82 29.64 coins	9.5%	71	55.9	1.27×
MP9 \| Dry Season (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 33	$11.19 22.38 coins	7.2%	49	55.9	0.88×
P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$9.51 19.01 coins	4.1%	32	37.3	0.86×
Negev \| CaliCamo (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 50	$6.57 13.14 coins	2.8%	25	37.3	0.67×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$6.37 12.73 coins	2.7%	34	37.3	0.91×
Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 50	$5.52 11.03 coins	2.4%	42	37.3	1.13×
UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$3.34 6.67 coins	1.4%	36	37.3	0.97×
PP-Bizon \| Breaker Box (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 50	$1.92 3.84 coins	0.8%	50	37.3	1.34×
MP7 \| Vault Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	73.9%	$1.06 2.11 coins	16.7%	1,371	1378.6	0.99×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$5.1910.38 coins$1,3832,766 coins266.5x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$5.1910.38 coins$1.062.11 coins0.20x2h

MP9 | Dry Season (Factory New)weapon · consumer$5.1910.38 coins$11.1922.38 coins2.16x2h

Negev | CaliCamo (Factory New)weapon · industrial$5.1910.38 coins$6.5713.14 coins1.27x2h

MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$5.1910.38 coins$1.062.11 coins0.20x2h

MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · UncommonBG2x$5.1910.38 coins$1.062.11 coins0.20x2h

MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$5.1910.38 coins$1.062.11 coins0.20x2h

Sawed-Off | Mosaico (Factory New)weapon · industrial$5.1910.38 coins$14.8229.64 coins2.86x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$5.19	89.95%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.0%covert 0.0%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%restricted 0.0%industrial 13.0%consumer 5.0%milspec 2.0%classified 2.0%#8847ff 2.0%#87c7ff 2.0%Uncommon 73.9%best hit $1,383 (266.5x)