Vault X
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.98
41.95 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $18.88 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.93%
280 openings, odds method
Variance
31.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 83
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 280 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 280 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$20.9841.95 coins$1,2412,481 coins59.15x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$20.9841.95 coins$6031,206 coins28.76x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.98 | 89.99% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%extraordinary 0.3%covert 26.4%#EB4B4B 0.1%Covert 0.3%uncommon 0.3%mil spec 72.5%best hit $1,241 (59.15x)