Vertigo
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.81
25.62 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $11.53 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.53%
5,526 openings, odds method
Variance
169.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 500
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,526 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl | 1 in 2,000 | $5,893 11,786 coins | 25.6% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 2,000 | $3,617 7,234 coins | 15.7% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.81× |
| Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,661 3,323 coins | 14.4% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.90× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 500 | $503 1,006 coins | 8.7% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.27× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $195 390 coins | 33.8% | 97 | 110.5 | 0.88× |
| SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 97.6% | $0.21 0.42 coins | 1.8% | 5,402 | 5393.4 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl$12.8125.62 coins$5,89311,786 coins460.0x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl$12.8125.62 coins$5,89311,786 coins460.0x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl$12.8125.62 coins$5,89311,786 coins460.0x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$12.8125.62 coins$3,6177,234 coins282.3x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphirefortune$12.8125.62 coins$3,6177,234 coins282.3x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$12.8125.62 coins$3,6177,234 coins282.3x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$12.8125.62 coins$3,6177,234 coins282.3x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · SapphireBG2x$12.8125.62 coins$3,6177,234 coins282.3x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$12.8125.62 coins$1,6613,323 coins129.7x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$12.8125.62 coins$1,6613,323 coins129.7x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.81 | 89.99% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedKnives 0.1%covert 2.2%other 0.2%#4b69ff 97.6%best hit $5,893 (460.0x)