Price
$16.29
32.57 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $14.65 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.19%
338 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 338 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 67 | $227 453 coins | 23.2% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.79× |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified | 1 in 67 | $226 452 coins | 23.1% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.79× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $125 251 coins | 25.7% | 12 | 10.1 | 1.18× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $75.38 151 coins | 15.4% | 10 | 10.1 | 0.99× |
| R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $7.24 14.47 coins | 4.4% | 20 | 30.4 | 0.66× |
| PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $3.04 6.08 coins | 5.2% | 90 | 84.5 | 1.07× |
| P250 | Inferno (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 27.0% | $1.03 2.05 coins | 1.9% | 90 | 91.3 | 0.99× |
| MP9 | Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.51 1.01 coins | 1.0% | 108 | 101.4 | 1.07× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifepooop$16.2932.57 coins$227453 coins13.92x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.29 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 1.5%Classified 1.5%covert 6.0%classified 9.0%industrial 25.0%restricted 27.0%mil spec 30.0%best hit —