Price
$132.14
264 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $118.92 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.55%
94 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 94 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 94 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$132264 coins$1,2652,529 coins9.57x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$132264 coins$1,2272,453 coins9.28x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $132 | 90.00% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%extraordinary 1.0%covert knife 4.0%restricted 24.0%Restricted 5.0%#8847ff 5.0%mil spec 36.0%classified 20.0%best hit $1,289 (9.75x)