Voltage

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.40

8.79 coins

Advertised RTP

89.93%

EV $3.95 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.58%

3,476 openings, odds method

Variance

83.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 108

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

350 openings · below min

7 days

81.97%±35.282,588 openings

30 days

76.58%±30.443,476 openings

since tracking started

76.58%±30.443,476 openings

-0.5%84.0%168.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	350	71.89%±95.9	—	odds
7d	2,588	81.97%±35.3	−0.4σ	odds
30d	3,476	76.58%±30.4	−0.9σ	odds
All	3,476	76.58%±30.4	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,476 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 100,000	$6,234 12,468 coins	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$2,317 4,635 coins	2.9%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 12,500	$1,979 3,958 coins	4.0%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,333	$860 1,721 coins	6.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$525 1,051 coins	6.6%	1	1.7	0.58×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,250	$338 677 coins	6.8%	2	2.8	0.72×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,000	$226 452 coins	5.7%	5	3.5	1.44×
Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,000	$195 391 coins	4.9%	4	3.5	1.15×
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$158 315 coins	4.0%	3	3.5	0.86×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$129 258 coins	6.5%	7	7.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 400	$92.49 185 coins	5.9%	11	8.7	1.27×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$51.12 102 coins	6.5%	16	17.4	0.92×
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$42.09 84.17 coins	10.6%	41	34.8	1.18×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$31.27 62.54 coins	7.9%	39	34.8	1.12×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$14.33 28.65 coins	5.7%	38	54.8	0.69×
Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	95.0%	$0.57 1.14 coins	13.7%	3,309	3302.2	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$4.408.79 coins$5251,051 coins119.5x5d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$4.408.79 coins$338677 coins76.97x4d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$4.408.79 coins$338677 coins76.97x5d

Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4.408.79 coins$226452 coins51.45x1d

Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4.408.79 coins$226452 coins51.45x3d

Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4.408.79 coins$226452 coins51.45x4d

Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4.408.79 coins$226452 coins51.45x7d

Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4.408.79 coins$226452 coins51.45x8d

Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classifiedoskandle$4.408.79 coins$226452 coins51.45x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$4.408.79 coins$0.571.14 coins0.13x39m

Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violetBG2x$4.408.79 coins$0.571.14 coins0.13x39m

Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$4.408.79 coins$0.571.14 coins0.13x42m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.40	89.93%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.0%covert 1.3%covert knife 0.0%classified 0.1%Classified 0.2%extraordinary 0.6%#d32ee6 0.3%restricted 2.6%violet 95.0%best hit $525 (119.5x)