Vortex
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.16
30.31 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $13.64 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.65%
1,767 openings, odds method
Variance
26.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 42
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,767 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 83 | $552 1,105 coins | 48.6% | 15 | 21.2 | 0.71× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 83 | $462 923 coins | 40.6% | 23 | 21.2 | 1.08× |
| SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 83 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 2.2% | 15 | 21.2 | 0.71× |
| CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $3.30 6.59 coins | 3.6% | 266 | 265.1 | 1.00× |
| Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777 | 20.0% | $2.01 4.01 coins | 2.9% | 337 | 353.4 | 0.95× |
| Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $0.68 1.35 coins | 1.5% | 558 | 530.1 | 1.05× |
| FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $0.41 0.82 coins | 0.5% | 258 | 265.1 | 0.97× |
| Dual Berettas | Shred (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 16.4% | $0.05 0.1 coins | 0.1% | 295 | 289.8 | 1.02× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$15.1630.31 coins$5521,105 coins36.44x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$15.1630.31 coins$5521,105 coins36.44x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3kvaki$15.1630.31 coins$5521,105 coins36.44x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$15.1630.31 coins$5521,105 coins36.44x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$15.1630.31 coins$5521,105 coins36.44x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$15.1630.31 coins$5521,105 coins36.44x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$15.1630.31 coins$5521,105 coins36.44x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$15.1630.31 coins$5521,105 coins36.44x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$15.1630.31 coins$5521,105 coins36.44x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$15.1630.31 coins$5521,105 coins36.44x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$15.1630.31 coins$462923 coins30.46x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.16 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.4%Rare 1.2%mil spec 31.4%#777777 20.0%restricted 30.0%#4b69ff 15.0%best hit $552 (36.44x)