Vox Puncher

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,412.58

2,825 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1,271.32 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.26%

38 openings, odds method

Variance

3.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

38 openings · below min

30 days

38 openings · below min

since tracking started

38 openings · below min

16.5%77.3%138.0%

Small sample. 38 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	38	77.26%±60.3	—	odds
30d	38	77.26%±60.3	—	odds
All	38	77.26%±60.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 400	$36.5K 72,902 coins	7.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$11.7K 23,410 coins	9.2%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100	$9,900 19,800 coins	7.8%	1	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$4,962 9,924 coins	7.8%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 50	$4,761 9,523 coins	7.5%	2	0.8	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 33	$4,425 8,850 coins	10.4%	1	1.1	0.88×
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$4,198 8,395 coins	9.9%	1	1.1	0.88×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$4,097 8,194 coins	6.4%	1	0.8	—
Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$3,920 7,840 coins	6.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$1,213 2,426 coins	3.8%	1	1.5	0.66×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 33	$1,201 2,403 coins	2.8%	1	1.1	0.88×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1,182 2,363 coins	4.6%	1	1.9	0.53×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 17	$1,170 2,340 coins	5.5%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 17	$1,138 2,276 coins	5.4%	0	2.3	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 17	$1,138 2,276 coins	5.4%	4	2.3	1.75×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	53.8%	$0.49 0.99 coins	0.0%	24	20.4	1.18×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$1,4132,825 coins$9,90019,800 coins7.01x2d

M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$1,4132,825 coins$4,7619,523 coins3.37x2d

M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$1,4132,825 coins$4,7619,523 coins3.37x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes$1,4132,825 coins$4,4258,850 coins3.13x1d

AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,4132,825 coins$4,1988,395 coins2.97x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$1,4132,825 coins$4,0978,194 coins2.90x2d

★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$1,4132,825 coins$1,2132,426 coins0.86x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$1,4132,825 coins$1,2012,403 coins0.85x2d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1,4132,825 coins$1,1822,363 coins0.84x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$1,4132,825 coins$1,1702,340 coins0.83x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$1,4132,825 coins$0.490.99 coins0.00x1d

★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · CovertJohnDoe77$1,4132,825 coins$1,1382,276 coins0.81x1d

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$1,4132,825 coins$0.490.99 coins0.00x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes$1,4132,825 coins$4,4258,850 coins3.13x1d

AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,4132,825 coins$4,1988,395 coins2.97x1d

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$1,4132,825 coins$0.490.99 coins0.00x2d

M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$1,4132,825 coins$4,7619,523 coins3.37x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1,413	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.3%extraordinary 1.0%covert 29.0%contraband 2.0%knifes 3.0%restricted 5.0%Covert 6.0%classified 53.8%best hit $9,900 (7.01x)