Warpath
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.33
10.66 coins
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $4.79 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.57%
395 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 395 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 200 | $83.12 166 coins | 8.7% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 125 | $75.70 151 coins | 12.6% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.27× |
| Souvenir UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · SMGs | 1 in 100 | $65.76 132 coins | 13.7% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.51× |
| XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 83 | $61.38 123 coins | 15.4% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.84× |
| AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $21.81 43.62 coins | 22.7% | 16 | 19.8 | 0.81× |
| P90 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $4.73 9.45 coins | 14.8% | 55 | 59.3 | 0.93× |
| P90 | Desert Warfare (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 25.0% | $2.15 4.29 coins | 11.2% | 114 | 98.8 | 1.15× |
| Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff | 51.5% | $0.09 0.17 coins | 0.9% | 199 | 203.4 | 0.98× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.33 | 89.95% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedIndustrial Grade 1.3%SMGs 1.0%other 1.2%covert 5.0%industrial 15.0%milspec 25.0%#4b69ff 51.5%best hit —