Wasteland
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$71.63
143 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $64.46 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
14.07%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $818 1,635 coins | 25.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 28 | $507 1,015 coins | 27.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare | 1 in 20 | $253 506 coins | 19.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $156 311 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $78.85 158 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $17.02 34.03 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Nova | Interlock (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 25.0% | $8.70 17.39 coins | 3.4% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.33× |
| AUG | Daedalus (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 39.5% | $2.56 5.11 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $71.63 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.6%rare 5.0%covert knife 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 25.0%consumer 39.5%best hit —