watchthismoney
A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7,890.11
15,780 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
121.05%
74 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 74 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and valuesnone published
No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.
Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,89015,780 coins$217K434,217 coins27.52x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,89015,780 coins$112K223,312 coins14.15x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryyuckk$7,89015,780 coins$73.5K147,047 coins9.32x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryyuckk$7,89015,780 coins$72.4K144,822 coins9.18x
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$7,89015,780 coins$52.4K104,780 coins6.64x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,89015,780 coins$41.2K82,490 coins5.23x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,89015,780 coins$41.2K82,490 coins5.23x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$7,89015,780 coins$36.5K72,902 coins4.62x
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableyuckk$7,89015,780 coins$31.6K63,128 coins4.00x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,89015,780 coins$26.7K53,347 coins3.38x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryyuckk$7,89015,780 coins$72.4K144,822 coins9.18x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7,89015,780 coins$41.2K82,490 coins5.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, daily
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedbest hit $217K (27.52x)