Windy
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.84
1.68 coins
Advertised RTP
89.66%
EV $0.75 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.91%
3,902 openings, odds method
Variance
43.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,902 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 10,000 | $513 1,025 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Charm | Lil' Whiskerscharm · #8847ff | 1 in 101 | $15.58 31.15 coins | 20.5% | 52 | 38.6 | 1.35× |
| SG 553 | Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $11.68 23.36 coins | 15.5% | 38 | 39.0 | 0.97× |
| UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $5.63 11.25 coins | 14.9% | 84 | 78.0 | 1.08× |
| Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 50 | $2.55 5.09 coins | 6.8% | 89 | 78.0 | 1.14× |
| P2000 | Grassland (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 50 | $1.09 2.18 coins | 2.9% | 69 | 78.0 | 0.88× |
| Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $0.58 1.17 coins | 1.6% | 73 | 78.0 | 0.94× |
| Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 90.0% | $0.26 0.52 coins | 31.1% | 3,497 | 3511.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec420Skabais$0.841.68 coins$0.260.52 coins0.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.66%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.84 | 89.66% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%#8847ff 1.0%classified 3.0%consumer 2.0%Industrial Grade 2.0%restricted 2.0%mil spec 90.0%best hit —