Winner Winner
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.50
12.99 coins
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $5.84 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.08%
552 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
53.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 552 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $25.31 50.62 coins | 8.7% | 14 | 11.0 | 1.27× |
| Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $14.33 28.65 coins | 12.3% | 48 | 27.6 | 1.74× |
| M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $12.09 24.18 coins | 10.3% | 18 | 27.6 | 0.65× |
| Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $7.66 15.32 coins | 19.7% | 75 | 82.8 | 0.91× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $6.76 13.51 coins | 23.1% | 102 | 110.4 | 0.92× |
| AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $6.27 12.54 coins | 21.5% | 113 | 110.4 | 1.02× |
| MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $1.09 2.17 coins | 2.8% | 78 | 82.8 | 0.94× |
| CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 18.0% | $0.55 1.09 coins | 1.7% | 104 | 99.4 | 1.05× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.50 | 89.94% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 22.0%restricted 43.0%covert 5.0%mil spec 30.0%best hit —