Winter Scarf
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$110.81
222 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $99.72 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
9.13%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
6.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 100 | $1,853 3,705 coins | 18.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $1,296 2,593 coins | 26.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 33 | $627 1,254 coins | 18.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $312 623 coins | 15.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 13 | $153 307 coins | 12.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $75.78 152 coins | 7.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $5.13 10.26 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 51.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.47× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $111 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.0%classified 22.0%restricted 10.0%#4b69ff 51.0%best hit —