Wired
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.77
41.54 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $18.69 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
37.22%
198 openings, odds method
Variance
25.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 198 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 198 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 100 | $1,012 2,023 coins | 54.1% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $152 304 coins | 16.3% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.76× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 45 | $117 234 coins | 13.8% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.15× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife | 1 in 40 | $70.09 140 coins | 9.4% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× |
| SCAR-20 | Storm (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 13 | $4.53 9.05 coins | 1.9% | 8 | 15.8 | 0.51× |
| FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777 | 27.0% | $1.52 3.03 coins | 2.2% | 50 | 53.5 | 0.94× |
| Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 27.3% | $1.02 2.04 coins | 1.5% | 61 | 54.1 | 1.13× |
| MP9 | Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.51 1.01 coins | 0.8% | 67 | 59.4 | 1.13× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knifereturn$20.7741.54 coins$117234 coins5.64x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.77 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%covert knife 4.5%other 2.2%Consumer Grade 8.0%#777777 27.0%Rare 27.3%mil spec 30.0%best hit —