Wise Welfare
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.58
3.16 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $1.42 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.31%
1,696 openings, odds method
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,696 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $27.81 55.62 coins | 19.6% | 11 | 17.0 | 0.65× |
| M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 1 in 50 | $19.07 38.14 coins | 26.8% | 40 | 33.9 | 1.18× |
| P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $5.61 11.22 coins | 15.8% | 69 | 67.8 | 1.02× |
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $4.78 9.55 coins | 16.8% | 75 | 84.8 | 0.88× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 25 | $3.99 7.98 coins | 11.2% | 71 | 67.8 | 1.05× |
| SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $2.31 4.62 coins | 8.1% | 64 | 84.8 | 0.75× |
| G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 1.4% | 34 | 33.9 | 1.00× |
| MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 77.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.3% | 1,332 | 1305.9 | 1.02× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.58 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%violet 2.0%covert 5.0%Legendary 4.0%mil spec 2.0%Consumer Grade 77.0%best hit —