Witchcraft
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.62
5.23 coins
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $2.35 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.04%
2,224 openings, odds method
Variance
9.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,224 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.625.23 coins$253506 coins96.71x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.625.23 coins$253506 coins96.71x
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec GradeGrimViper3313$2.625.23 coins$0.280.55 coins0.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.62 | 89.95% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%classified 5.5%Rare 2.0%restricted 18.0%industrial 6.0%#B0C3D9 13.0%Mil Spec Grade 55.4%best hit $253 (96.71x)