Zackwinz
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$48.87
97.73 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $43.98 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.96%
35 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 35 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $4,097 8,194 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 400 | $1,031 2,061 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert | 1 in 133 | $501 1,002 coins | 8.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 33 | $251 503 coins | 17.1% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.86× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 17 | $125 251 coins | 17.1% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| Souvenir Galil AR | VariCamo (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon | 10.0% | $75.08 150 coins | 17.1% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $39.19 78.38 coins | 17.8% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.14× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 25.0% | $15.38 30.75 coins | 8.7% | 11 | 8.8 | 1.26× |
| P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $5.17 10.34 coins | 2.9% | 8 | 8.8 | 0.91× |
| P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New)weapon · blue | 1 in 10 | $0.52 1.04 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covertaxel02legmail$48.8797.73 coins$39.1978.38 coins0.80x
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$48.8797.73 coins$251503 coins5.14x
Souvenir Galil AR | VariCamo (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weaponaxel02legmail$48.8797.73 coins$75.08150 coins1.54x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $48.87 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 51.0%gold 0.3%Covert 0.8%covert knife 3.0%other 10.0%classified 25.0%blue 10.0%best hit —