Zenith
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,623.51
5,247 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2,361.15 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.05%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
54.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 2.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 200 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire | 1 in 100 | $9,483 18,967 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes | 11.0% | $4,425 8,850 coins | 20.6% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 11.0% | $4,097 8,194 coins | 19.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 11.0% | $3,644 7,288 coins | 17.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire | 11.0% | $3,617 7,234 coins | 16.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2 | 22.0% | $2,135 4,270 coins | 19.9% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.70× |
| R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 32.5% | $0.49 0.99 coins | 0.0% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$2,6245,247 coins$3,6447,288 coins1.39x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$2,6245,247 coins$2,1354,270 coins0.81x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$2,6245,247 coins$2,1354,270 coins0.81x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$2,6245,247 coins$2,1354,270 coins0.81x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$2,6245,247 coins$2,1354,270 coins0.81x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$2,6245,247 coins$2,1354,270 coins0.81x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$2,6245,247 coins$3,6447,288 coins1.39x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$2,6245,247 coins$2,1354,270 coins0.81x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,624 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 55.5%#EB4B4B 1.0%knifes 11.0%classified 32.5%best hit $4,425 (1.69x)