Zezima

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,182.46

2,365 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1,064.21 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

74.24%

24 openings, odds method

Variance

6.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

24 openings · below min

30 days

24 openings · below min

since tracking started

24 openings · below min

-0.5%157.5%315.5%

Small sample. 24 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	136.31%±178.7	—	odds
7d	24	74.24%±103.2	—	odds
30d	24	74.24%±103.2	—	odds
All	24	74.24%±103.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$24.8K 49,625 coins	23.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 200	$10.9K 21,888 coins	5.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$10.6K 21,246 coins	5.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$10.4K 20,866 coins	4.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$9,925 19,850 coins	4.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 67	$6,282 12,564 coins	8.9%	2	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 67	$5,754 11,508 coins	8.1%	1	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 67	$4,761 9,523 coins	6.7%	0	0.4	—
Sticker \| kNgV- (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 67	$4,260 8,520 coins	6.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 67	$2,095 4,191 coins	3.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 67	$1,888 3,776 coins	2.7%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 67	$1,757 3,515 coins	2.5%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$1,263 2,526 coins	4.7%	1	1.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 25	$1,258 2,517 coins	4.7%	0	1.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$1,252 2,504 coins	4.7%	0	1.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$435 870 coins	2.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$385 771 coins	1.8%	3	1.2	2.50×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	10.5%	$23.11 46.22 coins	0.2%	5	2.5	1.98×
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$23.04 46.07 coins	0.2%	0	2.2	0.00×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$21.98 43.95 coins	0.2%	1	2.2	0.46×
P250 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 11	$19.17 38.33 coins	0.2%	5	2.2	2.31×
Nova \| Quick Sand (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 11	$18.09 36.17 coins	0.2%	2	2.2	0.93×
P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$16.06 32.11 coins	0.1%	3	2.2	1.39×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$13.86 27.72 coins	0.1%	1	2.2	0.46×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertBreeTheG$1,1822,365 coins$6,28212,564 coins5.31x16h

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$1,1822,365 coins$6,28212,564 coins5.31x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$1,1822,365 coins$5,75411,508 coins4.87x16h

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$1,1822,365 coins$1,2632,526 coins1.07x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$1,1822,365 coins$5,75411,508 coins4.87x16h

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$1,1822,365 coins$23.1146.22 coins0.02x16h

Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1,1822,365 coins$18.0936.17 coins0.02x16h

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$1,1822,365 coins$23.1146.22 coins0.02x16h

UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,1822,365 coins$385771 coins0.33x16h

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$1,1822,365 coins$23.1146.22 coins0.02x16h

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertBreeTheG$1,1822,365 coins$6,28212,564 coins5.31x16h

P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1,1822,365 coins$16.0632.11 coins0.01x1d

AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1,1822,365 coins$13.8627.72 coins0.01x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1,182	90.00%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 25.5%contraband 2.0%extraordinary 10.5%legendary 1.5%classified 14.0%Ancient 10.5%mil spec 18.0%industrial 9.0%Mil Spec Grade 9.0%best hit $6,282 (5.31x)