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A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$58.07
116 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $52.26 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.37%
2,955 openings, odds method
Variance
369.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 323
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,955 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 10,000 | $72.4K 144,822 coins | 13.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 3,333 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 23.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 5,000 | $25.5K 51,019 coins | 9.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 400 | $5,306 10,611 coins | 25.4% | 9 | 7.4 | 1.22× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby | 1 in 1,000 | $2,150 4,300 coins | 4.1% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.35× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic | 1 in 200 | $999 1,998 coins | 9.6% | 11 | 14.8 | 0.74× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 91 | $648 1,295 coins | 13.6% | 32 | 32.5 | 0.98× |
| FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 1 in 294 | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 6 | 10.0 | 0.60× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 97.7% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,892 | 2885.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$58.07116 coins$41.2K82,490 coins710.3x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$58.07116 coins$5,30610,611 coins91.37x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$58.07116 coins$5,30610,611 coins91.37x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$58.07116 coins$5,30610,611 coins91.37x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$58.07116 coins$5,30610,611 coins91.37x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$58.07116 coins$5,30610,611 coins91.37x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$58.07116 coins$5,30610,611 coins91.37x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$58.07116 coins$5,30610,611 coins91.37x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$58.07116 coins$5,30610,611 coins91.37x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$58.07116 coins$5,30610,611 coins91.37x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.07 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.3%covert 1.1%remarkable 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.1%epic 0.5%industrial 0.3%#4b69ff 97.7%best hit $41.2K (710.3x)