0 Chance
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.52
3.87 gems
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $2.26 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.98%
22.8K openings, odds method
Variance
726.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 2,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 10,000 | $3,865 5,945 gems | 17.1% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× |
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 5,000 | $2,584 3,975 gems | 22.8% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 5,000 | $2,405 3,700 gems | 21.3% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 2,000 | $818 1,259 gems | 18.1% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $754 1,160 gems | 16.7% | 8 | 11.5 | 0.70× |
| M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $0.12 0.18 gems | 0.5% | 2,347 | 2292.3 | 1.02× |
| Glock-18 | High Beam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon | 10.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.5% | 2,236 | 2292.3 | 0.98× |
| USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.10 0.15 gems | 0.9% | 4,564 | 4584.6 | 1.00× |
| AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9 | 25.0% | $0.09 0.14 gems | 1.0% | 5,724 | 5730.8 | 1.00× |
| PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet | 34.8% | $0.08 0.12 gems | 1.2% | 8,023 | 7988.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetBoogy95 #clashgg$2.523.87 gems$0.080.12 gems0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.52 | 89.95% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedknifes 0.0%classified 0.0%covert knife 0.1%covert 0.1%restricted 30.0%Uncommon 10.0%#5e98d9 25.0%violet 34.8%best hit $3,865 (1,536x)