10% AK-47
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$31.38
48.28 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $28.24 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.94%
3,961 openings, odds method
Variance
38.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,006 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $7,703 11,850 gems | 13.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $1,211 1,863 gems | 12.9% | 7 | 12.0 | 0.58× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 154 | $515 793 gems | 11.9% | 32 | 26.0 | 1.23× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $311 479 gems | 22.0% | 88 | 80.1 | 1.10× |
| AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $156 239 gems | 16.5% | 121 | 120.2 | 1.01× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $114 176 gems | 16.2% | 149 | 160.2 | 0.93× |
| AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 90.0% | $2.16 3.33 gems | 6.9% | 3,606 | 3605.4 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $31.38 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%restricted 90.0%best hit $7,703 (245.5x)