10% AWP
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$228.07
351 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $205.27 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.35%
1,268 openings, odds method
Variance
9.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,320 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $3,308 5,090 gems | 32.2% | 19 | 26.4 | 0.72× |
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $3,273 5,036 gems | 31.9% | 33 | 26.4 | 1.25× |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $2,127 3,272 gems | 20.7% | 30 | 26.4 | 1.14× |
| AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $777 1,196 gems | 15.1% | 61 | 52.8 | 1.16× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 45.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.0% | 607 | 594.0 | 1.02× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 45.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 570 | 594.0 | 0.96× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covertBOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs$228351 gems$3,3085,090 gems14.51x
Latest dropsnewest first
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$228351 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $228 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $3,308 (14.51x)