10% AWP Asiimov
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.52
19.26 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $11.26 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.52%
7,013 openings, odds method
Variance
8.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,229 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $163 251 gems | 43.4% | 223 | 216.9 | 1.03× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $107 165 gems | 28.6% | 214 | 216.9 | 0.99× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $78.40 121 gems | 27.8% | 273 | 289.2 | 0.94× |
| P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | $0.03 0.05 gems | 0.1% | 2,188 | 2168.7 | 1.01× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer | 30.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.1% | 2,179 | 2168.7 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 2,152 | 2168.8 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 12:30 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$12.5219.26 gems$78.40121 gems6.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $12.52 | 89.97% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%consumer 60.0%Consumer 30.0%best hit —