10% Bread Winner

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$28.39
43.68 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
76.74%
905 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
109 openings · below min
7 days
729 openings · below min
30 days
905 openings · below min
since tracking started
905 openings · below min
12.5%62.7%113.0%

Small sample. 905 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h10962.66%±49.7—sample
7d72965.13%±23.9—sample
30d90576.74%±30.5—sample
All90576.74%±30.5—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$28.3943.68 gems$2,9024,465 gems102.2x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014sticker · high$28.3943.68 gems$1,6842,590 gems59.29x
AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classifiedmummo$28.3943.68 gems$553851 gems19.48x
AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified$28.3943.68 gems$553851 gems19.48x
AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified$28.3943.68 gems$553851 gems19.48x
AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified$28.3943.68 gems$553851 gems19.48x
AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified$28.3943.68 gems$553851 gems19.48x
AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified$28.3943.68 gems$553851 gems19.48x

Latest dropsnewest first

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · violet$28.3943.68 gems$33.3851.36 gems1.18x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$28.3943.68 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$28.3943.68 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$28.3943.68 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$28.3943.68 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$28.3943.68 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$28.3943.68 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$28.3943.68 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$28.3943.68 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $2,902 (102.2x)