10% chance

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$107.31
165 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
73.77%
618 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
158 openings · below min
7 days
510 openings · below min
30 days
618 openings · below min
since tracking started
618 openings · below min
42.5%83.5%124.5%

Small sample. 618 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h15885.85%±37.8—sample
7d51069.12%±25.9—sample
30d61873.77%±28.0—sample
All61873.77%±28.0—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covertRocket$107165 gems$5,2818,125 gems49.21x
AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$107165 gems$5,2818,125 gems49.21x
AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert$107165 gems$2,9514,540 gems27.50x
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert$107165 gems$1,0781,659 gems10.05x
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert$107165 gems$1,0781,659 gems10.05x
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert$107165 gems$1,0781,659 gems10.05x
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert$107165 gems$1,0781,659 gems10.05x
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert$107165 gems$1,0781,659 gems10.05x
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert$107165 gems$1,0781,659 gems10.05x

Latest dropsnewest first

M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New)weapon · Rare$107165 gems$1.051.62 gems0.01x
M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New)weapon · Rare$107165 gems$1.051.62 gems0.01x
M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New)weapon · Rare$107165 gems$1.051.62 gems0.01x
M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New)weapon · Rare$107165 gems$1.051.62 gems0.01x
M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New)weapon · Rare$107165 gems$1.051.62 gems0.01x
M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New)weapon · Rare$107165 gems$1.051.62 gems0.01x
M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New)weapon · Rare$107165 gems$1.051.62 gems0.01x
M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New)weapon · Rare$107165 gems$1.051.62 gems0.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $5,281 (49.21x)