10% Dirt
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.30
0.46 gems
Advertised RTP
89.30%
EV $0.27 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.20%
17.9K openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $0.98 1.5 gems | 36.5% | 1,864 | 1824.1 | 1.02× |
| CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue | 10.0% | $0.64 0.98 gems | 23.9% | 1,837 | 1824.1 | 1.01× |
| MP5-SD | Condition Zero (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 10.0% | $0.50 0.77 gems | 18.7% | 1,856 | 1824.1 | 1.02× |
| XM1014 | Scumbria (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 50 | $0.34 0.52 gems | 2.5% | 351 | 364.8 | 0.96× |
| UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec | 1 in 33 | $0.21 0.33 gems | 2.4% | 509 | 547.2 | 0.93× |
| SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 20 | $0.18 0.27 gems | 3.3% | 954 | 912.0 | 1.05× |
| SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · gray | 1 in 20 | $0.10 0.16 gems | 1.9% | 890 | 912.0 | 0.98× |
| MP9 | Slide (Factory New)weapon · Common | 55.0% | $0.05 0.08 gems | 10.7% | 9,980 | 10032.6 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedrndmzz$0.300.46 gems$0.981.5 gems3.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.30%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.30 | 89.30% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%light blue 10.0%Rare 12.0%Mil Spec 3.0%#4b69ff 5.0%gray 5.0%Common 55.0%best hit —