10% Emerald
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$439.17
676 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $395.25 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.27%
868 openings, odds method
Variance
17.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 872 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 100 | $16.6K 25,473 gems | 41.9% | 13 | 8.7 | 1.49× |
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 100 | $5,814 8,945 gems | 14.7% | 8 | 8.7 | 0.92× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 100 | $4,817 7,410 gems | 12.2% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.80× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 33 | $2,475 3,807 gems | 18.8% | 17 | 26.2 | 0.65× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal | 1 in 25 | $1,186 1,825 gems | 12.0% | 30 | 34.9 | 0.86× |
| R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 90.0% | $1.87 2.87 gems | 0.4% | 797 | 784.8 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldPOTATO$439676 gems$16.6K25,473 gems37.70x
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)weapon · restrictedHydrarewards.com$439676 gems$1.872.87 gems0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $439 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 2.0%#ffd700 1.0%sunny 3.0%Immortal 4.0%restricted 90.0%best hit $16.6K (37.70x)