10% ENTRY FRAG

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$16.25
25 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
60.58%
727 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
296 openings · below min
7 days
681 openings · below min
30 days
727 openings · below min
since tracking started
727 openings · below min
25.5%53.8%82.0%

Small sample. 727 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h29648.32%±22.0—sample
7d68158.05%±21.3—sample
30d72760.58%±20.9—sample
All72760.58%±20.9—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red$16.2525 gems$649999 gems39.96x
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red$16.2525 gems$649999 gems39.96x

Latest dropsnewest first

Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$16.2525 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$16.2525 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$16.2525 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffitikiloko6$16.2525 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified$16.2525 gems$39.8861.36 gems2.45x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$16.2525 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$16.2525 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffitikiloko6$16.2525 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$16.2525 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert$16.2525 gems$65.64101 gems4.04x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $649 (39.96x)