10% FALCHION
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$27.38
42.12 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $24.64 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.20%
1,838 openings, odds method
Variance
9.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,848 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 50 | $539 829 gems | 43.8% | 33 | 37.0 | 0.89× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 50 | $231 356 gems | 18.8% | 36 | 37.0 | 0.97× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $162 249 gems | 19.7% | 56 | 55.4 | 1.01× |
| ★ Falchion Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 33 | $103 159 gems | 12.6% | 43 | 55.4 | 0.78× |
| Bloodhound Pinpin · exotic | 30.0% | $3.59 5.52 gems | 4.4% | 553 | 554.4 | 1.00× |
| MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | $0.71 1.09 gems | 0.9% | 563 | 554.4 | 1.02× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 564 | 554.4 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifesJoeTubeOnKick$27.3842.12 gems$539829 gems19.69x
★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifesJoeTubeOnKick$27.3842.12 gems$539829 gems19.69x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $27.38 | 89.98% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedknifes 2.0%sunny 2.0%covert 6.0%exotic 30.0%consumer 60.0%best hit $539 (19.69x)