10% Gold
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$284.67
438 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $256.20 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.64%
1,143 openings, odds method
Variance
9.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 31
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,167 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinaryMischievous Ifrit$285438 gems$5,5498,538 gems19.49x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $285 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 1.7%extraordinary 4.8%Extraordinary 1.5%Ancient 2.0%blue 10.0%high 20.0%Rare 40.0%milspec 20.0%best hit $7,472 (26.25x)