10% Jeweler
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$745.90
1,148 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $671.31 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.63%
366 openings, odds method
Variance
5.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 372 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 33 | $6,508 10,012 gems | 29.1% | 12 | 11.2 | 1.08× |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 33 | $5,857 9,011 gems | 26.2% | 10 | 11.2 | 0.90× |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 25 | $5,745 8,838 gems | 34.2% | 15 | 14.9 | 1.01× |
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $221 340 gems | 9.9% | 105 | 111.6 | 0.94× |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $12.26 18.86 gems | 0.5% | 116 | 111.6 | 1.04× |
| Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 30.0% | $1.74 2.67 gems | 0.1% | 114 | 111.6 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$7461,148 gems$6,50810,012 gems8.72x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$7461,148 gems$6,50810,012 gems8.72x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$7461,148 gems$6,50810,012 gems8.72x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$7461,148 gems$6,50810,012 gems8.72x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$7461,148 gems$6,50810,012 gems8.72x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$7461,148 gems$6,50810,012 gems8.72x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$7461,148 gems$6,50810,012 gems8.72x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldGdZ$7461,148 gems$6,50810,012 gems8.72x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$7461,148 gems$6,50810,012 gems8.72x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$7461,148 gems$6,50810,012 gems8.72x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $746 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%classified 30.0%restricted 30.0%remarkable 30.0%best hit $6,508 (8.72x)