10% Knife

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$29.78

45.81 gems

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $26.80 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.29%

5,140 openings, odds method

Variance

17.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.56%±39.80435 openings

7 days

99.95%±13.133,999 openings

30 days

93.29%±11.585,140 openings

since tracking started

93.29%±11.585,140 openings

43.0%83.5%124.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	435	83.56%±39.8	−0.3σ	odds
7d	3,999	99.95%±13.1	+1.5σ	odds
30d	5,140	93.29%±11.6	+0.6σ	odds
All	5,140	93.29%±11.6	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,314 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 100	$1,143 1,759 gems	42.7%	56	53.1	1.05×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 100	$438 675 gems	16.4%	51	53.1	0.96×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 100	$232 357 gems	8.7%	57	53.1	1.07×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 50	$152 235 gems	11.4%	125	106.3	1.18×
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 50	$118 182 gems	8.8%	105	106.3	0.99×
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$107 165 gems	12.0%	156	159.4	0.98×
P90 \| Sand Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	90.0%	$0.04 0.06 gems	0.1%	4,764	4782.6	1.00×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$29.7845.81 gems$1,1431,759 gems38.40x19m

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$29.7845.81 gems$1,1431,759 gems38.40x1h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$29.7845.81 gems$1,1431,759 gems38.40x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$29.7845.81 gems$1,1431,759 gems38.40x2d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700NI𝕏A ˙ᵕ˙$29.7845.81 gems$1,1431,759 gems38.40x2d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700Sleepy Python$29.7845.81 gems$1,1431,759 gems38.40x2d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$29.7845.81 gems$1,1431,759 gems38.40x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$29.7845.81 gems$0.040.06 gems0.00x4m

P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer7gg7$29.7845.81 gems$0.040.06 gems0.00x4m

P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$29.7845.81 gems$0.040.06 gems0.00x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$29.78	89.99%	7

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 1.0%epic 1.0%Immortal 1.0%covert 4.0%covert knife 3.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $1,143 (38.40x)