10% Lore
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$332.78
512 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $299.50 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.61%
649 openings, odds method
Variance
18.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 680 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $8,936 13,748 gems | 74.6% | 13 | 17.0 | 0.76× |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 40 | $1,452 2,233 gems | 12.1% | 14 | 17.0 | 0.82× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 40 | $1,191 1,832 gems | 9.9% | 13 | 17.0 | 0.76× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 40 | $382 587 gems | 3.2% | 15 | 17.0 | 0.88× |
| USP-S | Torque (Well-Worn)weapon · blue | 17.0% | $1.10 1.69 gems | 0.1% | 111 | 115.6 | 0.96× |
| M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 17.0% | $0.90 1.39 gems | 0.1% | 122 | 115.6 | 1.06× |
| AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 17.0% | $0.89 1.37 gems | 0.1% | 110 | 115.6 | 0.95× |
| P250 | Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue | 17.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.0% | 120 | 115.6 | 1.04× |
| P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 22.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.0% | 162 | 149.6 | 1.08× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $333 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.5%Covert 2.5%blue 34.0%industrial 39.0%restricted 17.0%best hit $8,936 (26.85x)