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10% Mirage

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$74.70
115 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $67.23 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.91%
797 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
33 openings · below min
7 days
93.62%±15.66697 openings
30 days
94.91%±14.64797 openings
since tracking started
94.91%±14.64797 openings
-0.5%66.8%134.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3361.59%±71.9—odds
7d69793.62%±15.7+0.5σodds
30d79794.91%±14.6+0.7σodds
All79794.91%±14.6+0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 797 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50$897 1,380 gems26.7%1815.91.13×
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$560 861 gems25.0%2523.91.05×
Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 20$247 380 gems18.4%4139.91.03×
StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert10.0%$61.31 94.33 gems9.1%8079.71.00×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade10.0%$44.86 69.02 gems6.7%9279.71.15×
Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Classified10.0%$36.99 56.9 gems5.5%7079.70.88×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified10.0%$21.59 33.22 gems3.2%8279.71.03×
StatTrak (XM1014 | Tranquility (Battle-Scarred)other10.0%$15.48 23.81 gems2.3%8079.71.00×
Souvenir Nova | Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted20.0%$8.09 12.45 gems2.4%149159.40.93×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified20.0%$2.54 3.91 gems0.8%160159.41.00×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertJoeTubeOnKick$74.70115 gems$8971,380 gems12.01x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertSleepy Jackalope$74.70115 gems$8971,380 gems12.01x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$74.70115 gems$8971,380 gems12.01x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertSensitive Young Man$74.70115 gems$8971,380 gems12.01x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$74.70115 gems$8971,380 gems12.01x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$74.70115 gems$8971,380 gems12.01x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$74.70115 gems$8971,380 gems12.01x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertHuh?$74.70115 gems$8971,380 gems12.01x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$74.70115 gems$8971,380 gems12.01x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$74.70115 gems$8971,380 gems12.01x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$74.70115 gems$44.8669.02 gems0.60x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$74.70115 gems$2.543.91 gems0.03x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$74.70115 gems$44.8669.02 gems0.60x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$74.70115 gems$44.8669.02 gems0.60x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$74.70115 gems$560861 gems7.49x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedich hab kleine d$74.70115 gems$2.543.91 gems0.03x
Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$74.70115 gems$247380 gems3.31x
Souvenir Nova | Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$74.70115 gems$8.0912.45 gems0.11x
Souvenir Nova | Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$74.70115 gems$8.0912.45 gems0.11x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$74.70115 gems$21.5933.22 gems0.29x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC$74.7089.99%10
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.0%restricted 25.0%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%Classified 10.0%classified 30.0%other 10.0%best hit $897 (12.01x)