Price
$16.95
26.08 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $15.25 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.89%
6,800 openings, odds method
Variance
15.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 36
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,926 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $670 1,030 gems | 32.9% | 42 | 51.9 | 0.81× |
| AWP | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 50 | $231 356 gems | 30.3% | 128 | 138.5 | 0.92× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 40 | $81.13 125 gems | 13.3% | 154 | 173.2 | 0.89× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 21 | $55.72 85.72 gems | 17.4% | 307 | 329.0 | 0.93× |
| Sticker | Side Eyes (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary | 20.0% | $2.11 3.24 gems | 2.8% | 1,419 | 1385.2 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | Ouchie (Foil)sticker · Exotic | 20.0% | $1.59 2.45 gems | 2.1% | 1,389 | 1385.2 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil)sticker · common | 25.0% | $0.49 0.75 gems | 0.8% | 1,749 | 1731.5 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Say Cheese (Holo)sticker · common | 25.0% | $0.27 0.42 gems | 0.4% | 1,738 | 1731.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.9526.08 gems$6701,030 gems39.50x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.9526.08 gems$6701,030 gems39.50x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.9526.08 gems$6701,030 gems39.50x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.9526.08 gems$6701,030 gems39.50x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertBigManToughGuy$16.9526.08 gems$6701,030 gems39.50x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.9526.08 gems$6701,030 gems39.50x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.9526.08 gems$6701,030 gems39.50x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.9526.08 gems$6701,030 gems39.50x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.9526.08 gems$6701,030 gems39.50x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.9526.08 gems$6701,030 gems39.50x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $16.95 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.5%Ancient 2.0%red 2.5%extraordinary 20.0%Exotic 20.0%common 50.0%best hit $670 (39.50x)