10% Snowball
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.90
1.39 gems
Advertised RTP
89.77%
EV $0.81 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.53%
44.2K openings, odds method
Variance
146.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $344 530 gems | 42.5% | 45 | 45.2 | 1.00× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified | 1 in 34 | $7.91 12.17 gems | 28.3% | 1,301 | 1310.7 | 0.99× |
| Galil AR | Winter Forest (Well-Worn)weapon · #5E98D9 | 1 in 33 | $1.93 2.97 gems | 7.1% | 1,365 | 1355.9 | 1.01× |
| Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 1 in 25 | $0.90 1.39 gems | 4.5% | 1,911 | 1807.9 | 1.06× |
| Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 45.0% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 13.3% | 20,530 | 20338.4 | 1.01× |
| Glock-18 | Winterized (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec | 45.0% | $0.08 0.12 gems | 4.3% | 20,045 | 20338.9 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryｓｔａｙ ᵀʳⁱᵖᵖʸ$0.901.39 gems$344530 gems381.1x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryWest Side Dog$0.901.39 gems$344530 gems381.1x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryKaw***arx$0.901.39 gems$344530 gems381.1x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.77%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.90 | 89.77% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%Classified 2.9%#5E98D9 3.0%violet 4.0%Rare 45.0%milspec 45.0%best hit $344 (381.1x)