1% DLore
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$99.31
153 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $89.38 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
127.85%
1,267 openings, odds method
Variance
80.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,379 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $8,936 13,748 gems | 100.0% | 18 | 13.8 | 1.31× |
| P250 | Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue | 24.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.0% | 343 | 331.0 | 1.04× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.0% | 326 | 344.7 | 0.95× |
| Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.0% | 347 | 344.7 | 1.01× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 345 | 344.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $99.31 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%blue 24.0%consumer 75.0%best hit $8,936 (89.98x)