1% Knife
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.24
1.91 gems
Advertised RTP
89.76%
EV $1.11 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.12%
71.2K openings, odds method
Variance
78.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $110 170 gems | 99.1% | 736 | 720.3 | 1.02× |
| P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 49.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.6% | 35,092 | 35295.3 | 0.99× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 50.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.3% | 36,204 | 36016.4 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.76%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.24 | 89.76% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%consumer 99.0%best hit $110 (88.98x)