1% Roller
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$232.80
358 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $209.51 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
62.69%
2,134 openings, odds method
Variance
129.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 400
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,180 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 2,000 | $58.5K 89,999 gems | 14.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 1,000 | $48K 73,898 gems | 22.9% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.92× |
| Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 1,000 | $45.4K 69,860 gems | 21.7% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base | 1 in 667 | $15K 23,096 gems | 10.7% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× |
| Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 667 | $12.8K 19,750 gems | 9.2% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| Sticker | Happy (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker | 1 in 667 | $11.3K 17,400 gems | 8.1% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 667 | $9,360 14,400 gems | 6.7% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.53× |
| Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 667 | $6,825 10,500 gems | 4.9% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| Sticker | Radiograph (Foil)sticker · Legendary | 99.0% | $3.84 5.91 gems | 1.8% | 2,162 | 2158.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkablejurassicpeek$233358 gems$48K73,898 gems206.3x
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$233358 gems$12.8K19,750 gems55.14x
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$233358 gems$12.8K19,750 gems55.14x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $233 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.3%remarkable 0.4%base 0.1%other 0.1%Legendary 99.0%best hit $58.5K (251.3x)