1% Tigress

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$6.03
9.28 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $5.43 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.27%
7,125 openings, odds method
Variance
29.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
80.36%±37.33802 openings
7 days
84.70%±13.715,944 openings
30 days
84.27%±12.527,125 openings
since tracking started
84.27%±12.527,125 openings
42.5%80.5%118.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h80280.36%±37.3−0.5σodds
7d5,94484.70%±13.7−0.8σodds
30d7,12584.27%±12.5−0.9σodds
All7,12584.27%±12.5−0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,191 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,000$1,336 2,055 gems2.5%20.7—
★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 5,000$1,080 1,661 gems4.0%01.40.00×
★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 5,000$789 1,214 gems2.9%11.40.70×
★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 2,000$511 786 gems4.7%33.60.83×
★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 2,000$428 658 gems3.9%23.60.56×
★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,429$323 496 gems4.2%15.00.20×
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,250$285 438 gems4.2%55.80.87×
★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$238 366 gems4.4%87.21.11×
★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 769$175 270 gems4.2%99.30.96×
★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 667$152 234 gems4.2%1210.81.11×
★ Paracord Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 667$128 196 gems3.5%710.80.65×
★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 588$119 183 gems3.7%1212.20.98×
P250 | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare10.0%$8.00 12.3 gems14.7%759719.11.06×
AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified15.0%$4.29 6.6 gems11.9%1,0811078.61.00×
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec20.0%$2.50 3.85 gems9.2%1,4321438.21.00×
USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare20.0%$2.49 3.83 gems9.2%1,4461438.21.01×
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted34.0%$1.38 2.12 gems8.6%2,4112444.90.99×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$6.039.28 gems$1,3362,055 gems221.4x
★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$6.039.28 gems$1,3362,055 gems221.4x
★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$6.039.28 gems$7891,214 gems130.9x
★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic$6.039.28 gems$511786 gems84.69x
★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic$6.039.28 gems$511786 gems84.69x
★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$6.039.28 gems$323496 gems53.48x

Latest dropsnewest first

M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$6.039.28 gems$2.503.85 gems0.41x
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$6.039.28 gems$1.382.12 gems0.23x
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$6.039.28 gems$1.382.12 gems0.23x
USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare$6.039.28 gems$2.493.83 gems0.41x
USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare$6.039.28 gems$2.493.83 gems0.41x
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$6.039.28 gems$2.503.85 gems0.41x
AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$6.039.28 gems$4.296.6 gems0.71x
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$6.039.28 gems$1.382.12 gems0.23x
AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$6.039.28 gems$4.296.6 gems0.71x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC$6.0389.99%17
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.5%epic 0.1%legendary 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%gold 0.1%sunny 0.2%Rare 30.0%classified 15.0%mil spec 20.0%restricted 34.0%best hit $1,336 (221.4x)