20% Baller
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$756.42
1,164 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $680.78 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
66.50%
181 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 181 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 50 | $6,435 9,901 gems | 18.9% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $5,281 8,125 gems | 23.3% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.10× |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $2,951 4,540 gems | 30.3% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $2,281 3,509 gems | 26.8% | 14 | 14.5 | 0.97× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 80.0% | $5.72 8.8 gems | 0.7% | 152 | 144.8 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covertBOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs$7561,164 gems$2,2813,509 gems3.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $756 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 2.0%covert 98.0%best hit $5,281 (6.98x)