20% Mid
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$152.95
235 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $137.65 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.16%
611 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 657 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $1,244 1,914 gems | 18.1% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.91× |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $933 1,435 gems | 20.3% | 22 | 19.7 | 1.12× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $588 905 gems | 21.4% | 31 | 32.8 | 0.94× |
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 20 | $527 810 gems | 19.1% | 31 | 32.8 | 0.94× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $453 697 gems | 16.5% | 32 | 32.8 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | mixwell | Atlanta 2017sticker · High Grade | 80.0% | $7.99 12.29 gems | 4.6% | 529 | 525.6 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$153235 gems$588905 gems3.85x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$153235 gems$588905 gems3.85x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $153 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 7.0%covert 3.0%gold 5.0%extraordinary 5.0%High Grade 80.0%best hit $1,244 (8.13x)