25%25%25 Profit Case

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 7 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$0.65
1 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
445.92%
50 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
40 openings · below min
7 days
50 openings · below min
30 days
50 openings · below min
since tracking started
50 openings · below min
-0.5%493.5%987.5%

Small sample. 50 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h40306.52%±483.2—sample
7d50445.92%±541.1—sample
30d50445.92%±541.1—sample
All50445.92%±541.1—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.651 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.01x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.651 gems$0.791.22 gems1.22x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.651 gems$0.791.22 gems1.22x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.651 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.01x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.651 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.01x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.651 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.01x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.651 gems$0.791.22 gems1.22x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$0.651 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.01x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.651 gems$0.791.22 gems1.22x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $64.38 (99.05x)