2% KNIFE-LOTO

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3.25
5 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
208.85%
30 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
12 openings · below min
7 days
24 openings · below min
30 days
30 openings · below min
since tracking started
30 openings · below min
-0.5%386.3%773.0%

Small sample. 30 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h120.20%±0.00—sample
7d24261.01%±511.2—sample
30d30208.85%±408.9—sample
All30208.85%±408.9—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$3.255 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$3.255 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sticker | FaZe Clan | Paris 2023sticker · 7$3.255 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Backstabgraffiti$3.255 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sticker | FaZe Clan | Paris 2023sticker · 7$3.255 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$3.255 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$3.255 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sticker | Arms Racesticker · Rare$3.255 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$3.255 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $203 (62.60x)