30% HighRoller
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,542.85
2,374 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,388.55 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.61%
42 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 42 openings and 5.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $8,936 13,748 gems | 38.6% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $6,003 9,235 gems | 25.9% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.19× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 17 | $4,188 6,443 gems | 18.1% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.59× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $2,312 3,557 gems | 10.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 17 | $1,614 2,483 gems | 7.0% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.19× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 70.0% | $7.72 11.87 gems | 0.4% | 30 | 29.4 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedBeljit$1,5432,374 gems$7.7211.87 gems0.01x
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedPalm Beach Pete$1,5432,374 gems$7.7211.87 gems0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1,543 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 18.0%contraband 6.0%classified 76.0%best hit $6,003 (3.89x)