30% Knife
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$154.72
238 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $139.25 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.94%
738 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 740 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 33 | $789 1,213 gems | 17.0% | 17 | 22.2 | 0.77× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 33 | $640 985 gems | 13.8% | 13 | 22.2 | 0.59× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $509 783 gems | 14.6% | 28 | 29.6 | 0.95× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $421 647 gems | 12.1% | 26 | 29.6 | 0.88× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 20 | $400 615 gems | 14.4% | 44 | 37.0 | 1.19× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $394 606 gems | 14.1% | 38 | 37.0 | 1.03× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 17 | $325 501 gems | 14.0% | 68 | 44.4 | 1.53× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 70.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 506 | 518.0 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$155238 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $155 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 3.0%sunny 14.0%covert 13.0%consumer 70.0%best hit $789 (5.10x)