Price
$15.76
24.25 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $14.18 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.37%
9,656 openings, odds method
Variance
25.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,780 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $585 899 gems | 41.2% | 100 | 97.8 | 1.02× |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $453 697 gems | 31.9% | 110 | 97.8 | 1.12× |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 100 | $319 490 gems | 22.5% | 91 | 97.8 | 0.93× |
| Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 97.0% | $0.64 0.99 gems | 4.4% | 9,479 | 9486.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$15.7624.25 gems$585899 gems37.08x
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryYRKV$15.7624.25 gems$585899 gems37.08x
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryRain$15.7624.25 gems$585899 gems37.08x
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$15.7624.25 gems$585899 gems37.08x
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$15.7624.25 gems$585899 gems37.08x
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryGoofy$15.7624.25 gems$585899 gems37.08x
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$15.7624.25 gems$585899 gems37.08x
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$15.7624.25 gems$585899 gems37.08x
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryLenSi$15.7624.25 gems$585899 gems37.08x
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryILYA$15.7624.25 gems$585899 gems37.08x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $15.76 | 89.99% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.0%covert 1.0%rare 1.0%milspec 97.0%best hit $585 (37.08x)